Back

So. these are interesting results!

Right now, I'm a strong no. Anything anyone publishes before the end of the year is going to be, at best, a spoiler and a distraction.

Worst case, if it picks up steam, it could split the interest in federation, and really inhibit further growth.

Metcalfe's law says the value of a communications medium goes up with the square of the number of participants.

If the total number of people interested in federated social networks is N, a single pool of people using compatible protocols -- AP, right now -- generates ~N^2 value.

If you split that in 2 even groups, the value of each group is ~N^2/4, and total value is N^2/2.

Every time we split the fediverse, we drive down value significantly.

So, if you care about federation, don't split.