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Metcalfe's law says the value of a communications medium goes up with the square of the number of participants.

If the total number of people interested in federated social networks is N, a single pool of people using compatible protocols -- AP, right now -- generates ~N^2 value.

If you split that in 2 even groups, the value of each group is ~N^2/4, and total value is N^2/2.

Every time we split the fediverse, we drive down value significantly.

So, if you care about federation, don't split.